Historical and Projected Variations of Precipitation and Temperature and Their Extremes in Relation to Climatic Indices over the Gandaki River Basin, Central Himalaya

Changes in precipitation and temperature, especially the Himalayan region, will have repercussions for socio-economic conditions future. Thus, this study aimed to understand climatic trend changes one of River basins, i.e., Gandaki Basin (GRB), Nepal. In particular, we analysed historical (1985–2014) projected (2015–2100) temperature their extremes using observation 13 bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets. Additionally, relationship between extreme precipitation/temperature indices ocean-atmospheric circulation patterns were also analysed. The results showed an increasing amount at annual seasonal scales with highest upward monsoon season winter season. Among nine analysed, wet are increase all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios; increment high-intensity related (R10 mm R20 mm). contrast, dry spells decline distant-future (2075–2100) as compared near (2015–2044) mid-future (2045–2074). Further, resulted a decrease cold warm extremes. Furthermore, it was observed that over GRB influenced by large-scale patterns. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Southern Index (SOI) found major role driving while AMO, SST Pacific Decadal (PDO) strong influence on be useful better understanding implications future GRB.